Our Latest Market Commentary
It’s already ¼ of the way through the year. Crazy! As always I’ve put together a recorded screencast so that those who like watching a VIDEO can follow my mouse, watch, and listen to me explain my way through this quarterly update on the state of the markets. However, we’ve kept with our tradition of also providing a written version, for those people who would rather read than watch. Naturally, I’d recommend the video and some headphones. I think it helps things “sink in” better than reading, but that’s just me. Alrighty… without further anticipation, let’s get to it! read more…
This week’s update on the state of the market is going to be quick and concise, as I’m writing it on Saturday morning after wrapping up the annual CMT (Chartered Market Technician) Symposium in New York City. So let’s just get down to it as I want to share a few pictures and charts, along with what I like, and what I don’t like about each.
The first is the market (S&P500) going back to summer of ’18. We had a -19.8% drop from Sept 21st thru the bottom in late-December. Since then, the market has rallied and in the vast majority of cases (all but one, to be precise), whenever the market is above a rising long-term trend (as defined by the 200-day moving average) and falls more than -14%, for the first time since WWII, we haven’t seen a notable “re-test” of the initial lows. Not to say it can’t happen still (I’ll elaborate on that next week), but so far, here’s what I see: read more…