Our Latest Market Commentary

Evaluating the First 100 Days

Healthcare repeal and replace, deregulation, tax reform, the fiduciary rule… these are all the hot topics running across the airwaves since a new administration stepped into The White House.  When Donald Trump won the presidency back in November, it was a widely held belief on Wall Street that the market would likely find a top and come crumbling down.  I was in that camp as well, and certainly wasn’t willing to take the risk to be “all in” the market prior to such a historic (and potentially catastrophic) event.

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Real (Good) News

However “real” the news may be perceived, rarely is news “breaking.”  However, in light of all the annoying, repetitive press these days, I thought I’d share some good news that – as a matter of fact – is somewhat ground-breaking.

Something happened this month that hasn’t occurred since November of 2009.  A relatively accurate, very-long-term stock market indicator flipped positive after spending the last 23 months on a sell signal.

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This Number Can Predict the Stock Market

At first glance, you should already be questioning the validity of this article based on the title, alone!  Can anything really predict the stock market?!  As it turns out, there one statistic that has a pretty good track record when it comes to predicting the outcome of the S&P500 each year.  It’s called “The January Barometer,” invented by Yale Hirsch decades ago, and it has an 87.9% success rate.  Not bad…

You may have heard the saying, “As January goes, so goes the rest of the year.”  Translated, if the month of January is positive, then the statistic reports that the entire year will end positive as well.  This is the essence of the January Barometer (JB).

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